Value bets are where you estimate the actual chance of an event and make bets that return Expected Value. This is the more sophisticated method that involves much learning and analysis, but can produce profits in the long run.
Consider this example. If Crazy Man’s “heads” +105 and “tails” -102 odds are good, bets on “heads” are better value.
Identifying Overpriced Odds
Value betting differs from sports bets that are typically emotional and personal in that they offer objectivity and reliability. Valuation betting lets you exploit chances to tip the balance of bookmakers in your favour by making profits every time.
If you want to spot value bets, the very first thing you should look for is odds that are higher than their true probability. You can achieve this by becoming an expert in your own sport; statistical analysis methods to measure injuries, fatigue and past performance; or creating a prediction model with external factors such as the weather.
So once there’s a chance, you have to get the opportunity as soon as possible. Odds go up and down, so a bet that gave you value an hour ago can no longer offer that opportunity to reward. This opportunity discovery and expectation calculation process is taken over by value betting software products that aid you by implementing sophisticated algorithms to streamline this step.
Identifying Overvalued Bets
Value betting assumes that if you know how much a game has to actually happen, you can beat the bookmakers by choosing winners in which the likelihood is greater than the odds being offered. That takes a thorough understanding of the sport and the ability to quickly calculate odds on the spot, many good bettors depend on statistics models or value betting software packages like RebelBetting that have done their work time and again to get people winning bets.
Finding these bets requires knowing how markets move – whether it’s dramatic shifts in odds just before an event takes place, for example, that signal influential punters have made a bet and the bookies have overreacted. Late line shifts are also to be watched because it will often bring you up against major probabilities shifts revealing expensive odds.
Identifying Undervalued Bets
Find the low odds is what you need to make money on sports betting. This is simply finding wagers where your own estimation of true probability is greater than the bookmakers’ odds – your own estimated true probabilities of an event divided by bookmaker odds – anything more than zero being value bets.
You need to learn everything about any sport, to be able to calculate probabilities in a way that is accurate and will allow you to see the market inefficiencies. This involves reading team and player stats, injuries and records as well as line movement since odds can quickly change depending on what news is being released and who is wagering.
Value betting gives long-term returns by exploiting high odds and makes sports betting an investment. But even value bets are risky so do manage your bankroll wisely and be responsible.
Identifying Value Bets
A winning bet requires knowledge, analysis, and a constant dedication. It takes value betting, a proven strategy to make money on sports bets, too to make it successful.
Value bets should be picked up by learning implied probability and how to weigh up the probability you have given a bet against odds offered by a bookmaker. Your prediction is more than implied probability – which may be where you can take value bets.
If you want better chances at finding value bets then you have to be familiar with your sport and avoid more obscure leagues where odds aren’t as precise. Also keep up with market trends and over reacting to injury or weather information; and also do disciplined bankroll management for highest return.
